Is Michael Penix worth drafting in fantasy leagues next year?
- dbuckley757
- Apr 24
- 7 min read
Michael Penix Jr. Fantasy Football Upside for the 2025 NFL Season
As the 2025 NFL season nears, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. stands out as an intriguing fantasy football prospect. Drafted eighth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, Penix moved from a backup role behind Kirk Cousins to the starting quarterback by the end of his rookie year. With a powerful arm, a talented receiving group, and a favorable offensive system, Penix offers significant fantasy upside in 2025. This article examines his past performance, the skills of his receivers, their chemistry, and how the 2025 NFL Draft could boost his fantasy value, supported by key stats and potential draft scenarios.
Michael Penix Jr.'s Past Performance and 2024 Stats
Michael Penix Jr.'s path to the NFL showcased impressive college production and resilience through injuries. At the University of Washington, he threw for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions over two seasons (2022–2023), with a 65.3% completion rate. His 2023 season was exceptional, leading the NCAA with 4,903 passing yards, finishing as Heisman Trophy runner-up, and leading the Huskies to the National Championship game. Despite earlier injuries at Indiana (two ACL tears and two shoulder injuries), Penix’s final two healthy college seasons highlighted his arm talent and ability to lead a pass-heavy offense.
In 2024, Penix played in five NFL games, starting the final three for the Falcons. His stats offer a glimpse of his potential:
- Week 16 vs. New York Giants: 18/27 (66.7%), 202 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (tipped pass), 1 rushing TD (6 yards).
- Week 17 vs. Washington Commanders: 19/35 (54.3%), 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 rushes for 16 yards.
- Week 18 vs. Carolina Panthers: 21/38 (55.3%), 312 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rush for 5 yards, 1 rushing TD.
Not every interception was Penix's fault either. (see video)
Across his three starts, Penix averaged 245.7 passing yards per game, totaling 737 yards, 3 passing TDs, 3 INTs, and 2 rushing TDs, with a 1-2 record (both losses in overtime). His 312-yard, two-touchdown game against the Panthers showcased his ability to push the ball downfield, heavily targeting star receiver Drake London (18 targets, 187 yards, 2 TDs). While his 58.4% completion rate and interception numbers show areas for improvement, Penix’s arm strength and aggressive style fit well with the Falcons’ offense under coordinator Zac Robinson.
The Benefits of Sitting Behind Kirk Cousins
A key factor in Penix’s development was the time he spent learning behind veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins during his rookie season. This approach has benefited several successful NFL quarterbacks. For instance, Aaron Rodgers spent three years behind Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers, gaining knowledge and refining his skills before becoming an elite quarterback with multiple MVP awards. Similarly, Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for a year with the Kansas City Chiefs, adjusting to the NFL’s speed and complexity before emerging as a superstar with multiple Super Bowl wins. More recently, Jordan Love spent three years behind Rodgers, and in his first year as a starter in 2023, he threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, showing significant promise. While Penix, as the eighth overall pick, has a high ceiling, expectations should be tempered, he may not reach the elite levels of Mahomes or Rodgers, as their success is exceptional compared to where they were drafted. However, learning from Cousins, a seasoned quarterback with over a decade of NFL experience, provided Penix with valuable mentorship. This time on the sidelines likely helped him better understand defensive schemes, improve his mechanics, and build confidence, all crucial for transitioning to a starting role. Still, success depends on Penix’s talent and the Falcons’ supporting cast, and it’s not guaranteed.
With six years of college experience (1,109 passes) and the lessons learned behind Cousins in 2024, Penix enters 2025 as a polished quarterback ready to lead. Fantasy projections for 2025 are optimistic, with some analysts forecasting 30 passing touchdowns, 5 rushing touchdowns, 4,000 passing yards, and 500 rushing yards, assuming he remains the starter.
The Falcons’ Receiving Corps: Abilities and Synergy with Penix
The Falcons feature a talented group of pass-catchers, led by Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud. Their skills complement Penix’s strengths as a deep-ball thrower with excellent arm strength and precision on vertical routes.
Drake London (WR)
- 2024 Stats: 79 receptions, 1,004 yards, 8 TDs (17 games, per NFL.com).
- Abilities: London, at 6’4” and 215 lbs, is a big-bodied receiver with elite contested-catch skills and body control. His ability to win jump balls and stretch the field makes him ideal for Penix’s deep-ball accuracy, which was among the best in the 2024 draft class. London’s 187-yard, two-touchdown game in Week 18 with Penix highlights their chemistry.
- Synergy: Penix’s aggressive style and ability to throw into tight windows pair well with London’s contested-catch ability. At Washington, Penix excelled with NFL-caliber receivers like Rome Odunze, placing balls where only his targets could catch them. This mirrors his connection with London, who can exploit single coverage on go routes and deep posts.
Kyle Pitts (TE)
- 2024 Stats: 53 receptions, 643 yards, 4 TDs (17 games, per NFL.com).
- Abilities: Pitts, a 6’6” athletic standout, combines tight end size with wide receiver agility. His route-running and ability to separate in intermediate and deep areas make him a mismatch against linebackers and safeties.
- Synergy: Penix’s arm strength allows him to hit Pitts on seam routes and deep crosses, where Pitts thrives. The game-tying touchdown pass to Pitts in Week 17 showed Penix’s ability to find his tight end in clutch moments. Penix’s experience in a pro-style offense at Washington equips him to use Pitts creatively, from inline to slot roles.
Darnell Mooney (WR)
- 2024 Stats: 45 receptions, 676 yards, 5 TDs (17 games, per NFL.com).
- Abilities: Mooney’s speed (4.38 40-yard dash) and quickness make him a deep threat and YAC specialist, excelling on slants, deep overs, and jet sweeps.
- Synergy: Penix’s ability to stretch defenses vertically (36 passes of 40+ air yards in 2022–2023 at Washington) matches Mooney’s speed. Mooney’s 24-yard gain on a Penix pass in Week 18 suggests growing chemistry. Penix can exploit Mooney’s ability to get behind secondaries for big plays.
Penix’s arm talent and his receivers’ ability to win at all field levels create strong synergy. His 92.9 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket in 2023 shows he thrives with protection, and Atlanta’s offensive line, led by Jake Matthews and Chris Lindstrom, should provide stability. The Falcons’ pass-heavy scheme, influenced by Sean McVay’s Rams system, emphasizes play-action and deep shots, aligning with Penix’s fearless, sideline-to-sideline passing style.
2025 NFL Draft: Potential Additions to Boost Fantasy Value
The 2025 NFL Draft offers the Falcons a chance to strengthen their offense, further enhancing Penix’s fantasy outlook. With needs at wide receiver (to replace aging depth like Mack Hollins) and possibly running back (to complement Bijan Robinson), Atlanta could target players to elevate Penix’s production. The Falcons hold the 15th overall pick, and additional only a few (5) day 2 picks.
Potential Draft Targets
1. Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
- Profile: A 6’5”, 210-pound receiver with elite ball skills and YAC ability, McMillan is a projected top-10 pick. The Falcons could trade up to get him.
- Impact on Penix: McMillan’s size and contested-catch ability would resemble Penix’s college connection with Odunze, giving him another high-point target. His 2024 college stats (1,322 yards, 8 TDs) suggest immediate impact. McMillan could push Penix’s passing yards toward 4,500 and increase his TD totals.
2. Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
- Profile: A polished route-runner with 4.4 speed, Egbuka (6’1”, 205 lbs) is a mid-first-round projection. His 2024 stats include 614 yards and 7 TDs in 10 games.
- Impact on Penix: Egbuka’s versatility (slot or outside) and separation skills would give Penix a reliable target on intermediate routes, complementing London’s deep threat. This could improve Penix’s completion percentage and fantasy consistency.
The Falcons’ draft strategy will likely focus on offensive weapons, given Penix’s role and recent defensive investments (e.g., A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III). General manager Terry Fontenot’s aggressive approach (trading up for Penix in 2024) suggests he may move up for a player like McMillan.
Challenges and Areas for Growth
Penix faces challenges that could affect his fantasy value:
- Accuracy and Mechanics: His 22.9% uncatchable pass rate in 2023 and 58.4% completion rate in 2024 NFL starts show accuracy issues, partly due to his elongated throwing motion. Improving footwork and anticipation is key.
- Pressure Handling: Penix avoids sacks (7.6% pressure-to-sack ratio in college) but can get skittish under pressure, leading to throwaways or risky passes. Atlanta’s strong offensive line helps, but tough defenses could exploit this.
- Injury History: Four season-ending injuries at Indiana raise durability concerns, though Penix stayed healthy at Washington and in 2024.
These issues suggest Penix may have inconsistent weeks, making him a volatile fantasy option early in 2025. However, his high ceiling and supporting cast make him a worthwhile risk.
Fantasy Outlook for 2025
Penix’s fantasy upside rests on his arm talent, elite receivers, and the Falcons’ pass-friendly system. His 2024 performance (245.7 yards per start, 5 total TDs in three games) and college production (9,544 yards, 67 TDs) project a 4,000–4,200-yard, 28–32 TD season in 2025, with 400–600 rushing yards and 4–6 rushing TDs. A high-end receiver or dual-threat back in the 2025 draft could push him into the top 10 QBs, especially if he refines his accuracy and decision-making.
In fantasy drafts, Penix is likely a late-round pick in one-QB leagues (QB15–20 range) and a mid-round target in Superflex/two-QB formats (top 8 rookie pick). Matchups against NFC South defenses (e.g., Tampa Bay, New Orleans) and potential shootouts (e.g., Week 17, 2024 vs. Commanders: 223 yards, 1 TD) make him a streaming candidate.
Michael Penix Jr. is set for a breakout fantasy season in 2025, supported by his arm strength, dynamic receivers, and a system tailored to his skills. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are perfect targets for his deep-ball ability, while Darnell Mooney and potential draft additions like Tetairoa McMillan or Ashton Jeanty could elevate his ceiling. Though accuracy and pressure handling are concerns, Penix’s upside as a QB1/2 makes him a high-reward pick for fantasy managers betting on his growth. As the Falcons build around their young quarterback, Penix could become one of the NFL’s next fantasy stars.
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