Tank Bigbsy Buy or Sell This Year?
- David Buckley
- Jul 26
- 5 min read
As we approach the 2025 fantasy football season, the Jacksonville Jaguars' running back situation presents a fascinating case study, particularly for Tank Bigsby, whose 2024 performance has sparked significant interest. This analysis delves into Bigsby's potential, considering Travis Etienne's struggles, the impact of new head coach Liam Coen, and the pros and cons at Bigsby's current ADP, weaving in key stats to provide a comprehensive outlook for fantasy managers.
Tank Bigsby, selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Jaguars, had a modest rookie season, accumulating just 138 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns, largely due to being behind Travis Etienne Jr. However, 2024 marked a turning point. Bigsby erupted for 766 rushing yards on 168 carries, averaging an impressive 4.6 yards per carry, and scored 7 touchdowns, outpacing Etienne in efficiency metrics. This breakout has elevated his draft position to around RB48 for 2025, a significant jump from his RB62 ADP in 2024, reflecting growing confidence in his potential. Recent posts on X, such as one from @GuruFantasyWrld on October 7, 2024, highlight Bigsby's efficiency, noting he was 5th in broken tackles and led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (6.47). Another post from @TheFFBallers on October 9, 2024, ranked him 1st in yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and breakaway rush rate among qualified RBs, underscoring his breakout potential.
Etienne entered 2024 with high expectations, drafted as a consensus top-10 fantasy running back around the 39th overall pick. However, his season was a disappointment, averaging a career-worst 3.7 yards per carry, with a -0.28 rushing yards over expected per carry (RYOE/C), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His explosiveness waned, as he failed to score a touchdown in the final 13 games and posted lackluster stats over his last nine games: 94 carries for 328 yards and 23 catches for 163 yards. Injuries, including a two-week hamstring issue and a shoulder injury, further hampered his performance, reducing his snap share at times. By Week 5, Bigsby was out-snapping Etienne in key situations, including goal-line work, signaling a shift in the coaching staff's trust, as noted in a post from @jagibbs_23 on October 6, 2024, which stated Bigsby had a 41% snap rate and both rush attempts from inside the 10-yard line. Etienne's pass-catching ability (16 receptions for 91 yards in 2024) kept him relevant, but his 56.6% rushing success rate paled compared to Bigsby's 50.0%, despite Etienne's higher target share (14.1% vs. Bigsby's 0.8%). With Etienne entering the final year of his contract in 2025 and facing competition from Bigsby and rookie Bhayshul Tuten, his grip on the RB1 role is increasingly tenuous.
(Tank has the ability to take it to the house)
The Jaguars' hiring of Liam Coen as head coach for 2025 introduces a fresh dynamic. Coen, previously the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024, is known for a creative, versatile run game, leaning heavily on gap-scheme runs, which suited backs like Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Coen has expressed a preference for gap schemes over zone-based runs when the offensive line and backs are better suited, which aligns well with Bigsby's physical, downhill running style. His system also emphasizes involving running backs in the passing game, potentially benefiting Etienne, the team's best pass-catcher, but posing a challenge for Bigsby, who has only 8 career receptions in 33 games. Coen's tendency to distribute carries, as seen in Tampa with Irving, White, and Sean Tucker, suggests a committee approach in Jacksonville. With Etienne, Bigsby, Tuten, and rookie LeQuint Allen in the mix, no single back is likely to dominate touches, adding complexity to Bigsby's outlook. However, Coen's focus on a robust rushing attack could elevate the Jaguars' ground game, which struggled in 2024 with a 38.54% rushing play percentage, potentially creating more opportunities for Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby offers several advantages at his current ADP of RB48. His efficiency on the field is notable, with a 4.6 yards per carry average and leading the league in rushing yards over expected per carry (+4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (7.1). This explosiveness makes him a valuable asset in any backfield. Additionally, Bigsby has established himself as the Jaguars' goal-line back, scoring 7 touchdowns in 2024, which significantly boosts his fantasy value. With Travis Etienne's struggles and contract uncertainty, there's a real possibility that Bigsby could step into the RB1 role, especially if he continues to outperform Etienne. His performance in 2024, where he finished as RB37 in half-PPR leagues, already exceeded his draft position, indicating that he could provide RB2 value with an increased role.
However, there are several factors that could limit Bigsby's fantasy production. The Jaguars' backfield is crowded, with the addition of rookie Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen, which could result in a committee approach, capping Bigsby's touches. Bigsby's involvement in the passing game is minimal, with only 8 career receptions, making him less valuable in PPR leagues where Etienne and potentially Allen will handle more receiving work. His history of fumbling, with 6 fumbles over two seasons, is a concern that could affect his playing time. Furthermore, the Jaguars' overall offensive performance in 2024 was lackluster, and if they continue to struggle, negative game scripts could reduce rushing opportunities for Bigsby.
Looking at key stats, Bigsby's 2024 performance included 168 carries for 766 yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 4.6 YPC, while Etienne managed only 3.7 YPC and no touchdowns in his final 13 games. Bigsby led the NFL in RYOE/C (+4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (7.1), His snap share peaked at 40% in Week 5, but he averaged 49% of designed rush snaps, compared to Etienne's 40%, though Etienne dominated passing downs (48% vs. Bigsby's 26%). The Jaguars face favorable matchups in 2025 against teams like the Jets, Raiders, and Titans, which could sustain Bigsby's value in neutral or positive game scripts, as per schedule data from FantasyPros.
In summary, Tank Bigsby's 2025 fantasy outlook depends on his ability to secure a consistent role in a crowded backfield. His efficiency, physicality, and goal-line usage make him an appealing high-upside pick at RB48, especially in standard or half-PPR leagues where his lack of receiving work is less punitive. In Liam Coen's gap-heavy scheme, Bigsby's tackle-breaking ability and vision could lead to career-high rushing totals, potentially surpassing Etienne in carries. However, the presence of Bhayshul Tuten and Etienne's pass-catching edge introduce risk, particularly in full-PPR formats. For fantasy managers, Bigsby is a late-round flier; if drafting Etienne (ADP around RB33), consider handcuffing with Bigsby, as an injury or further decline could elevate him into RB2 territory. In dynasty leagues, Bigsby's youth (23 years old) and two years left on his rookie contract make him a valuable stash, especially with Etienne's free agency looming in 2026. It's crucial to monitor training camp reports to gauge his role, but his 2024 tape suggests he's ready to compete for the lead, potentially rewarding fantasy managers who take the gamble.
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