Cooper Flagg, another Duke draft bust, or Tatum 2.0?

Cooper Flagg, Duke (SF/PF):

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 205 lbs  

Duke freshman Cooper Flagg arrived in the 2024-25 season as the top-rated high school prospect, and through 26 games, his statistical output demands NBA scrutiny. At 6’9”, 205 lbs, and 18 years old, Flagg’s tools—7’1” wingspan, quick feet—underpin a rare freshman stat profile. I evaluate college ball from an NBA perspective, and Flagg’s detailed numbers, versatility, and areas to address stand out. He also shone as a 17-year-old against NBA talent on the world stage, showing a penchant for rising to the occasion in big moments—expect more in the March Madness tournament. While his numbers may not paint him as an offensive dynamo, he plays in Duke’s rigid system and isn’t a ball-stopper. He could either anchor an NBA offense or slot into almost any modern scheme as a key cog. Beyond the numbers, he passes the eye test with excellent defensive effort, attacking closeouts, and real-time learning—rarely getting beaten by the same move twice.

The Numbers

Through February 17, 2025, Flagg’s per-game averages over 26 outings are:  

19.8 points (53.4% FG, 41.2% 3PT, 81.5% FT)  

8.5 rebounds (2.3 ORPG, 6.2 DRPG)  

3.9 assists  

1.7 steals  

1.3 blocks  

2.4 turnovers  

32.6 minutes

In ACC play (14 games), he’s at 22.3 points (53.4% FG, 46.4% 3PT, 83.1% FT), 6.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks. He leads Duke in all five major categories—a feat unmatched in the ACC since Tim Duncan’s 1996-97 season. Duke’s 23-3 (15-1 ACC) record ties directly to his impact.

Breaking it down further:  

Shooting Splits: Flagg takes 13.8 field goal attempts per game—5.2 at the rim (68.2% FG), 3.1 in the paint excluding the rim (46.7%), 2.5 midrange (41.9%), and 3.1 threes (41.2%, 1.3 makes). His 62% true shooting beats the NCAA Division I average (54.5%). Free throws: 4.9 attempts, 4.0 makes.

AP Photo/John Bazemore

 These shooting splits might be a product of Duke's style, these often drastically change in NBA schemes, and it isn't a plus/negative on how we analyze his shot selection or his abilities.

Advanced Stats: 25.8% usage rate, 3.8% turnover rate on possessions used, 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio in ACC play (1.63 season-long). Defensive rating: 91.2 points allowed per 100 possessions when on court (top 15% nationally).

Flagg’s 3.0 stocks (steals + blocks) per game and 41.2% three-point shooting on 3.1 attempts highlight his versatility. His rebounding skews defensive (6.2 DRPG vs. 2.3 ORPG), and 2.4 turnovers signal ball-handling inconsistency. Duke’s offense ranks fifth nationally (KenPom), with Flagg’s 19.8 PPG pacing a balanced attack.

NBA Fit

Flagg’s game projects well, but gaps remain. At 205 lbs, he’s lean for a forward; adding 15-20 pounds could bolster post defense without sapping agility. His 41.2% three-point clip (1.3 makes, 3.1 attempts) suggests scalability, but NBA range and volume (likely 5-6 attempts) will test consistency—his funky release (high finish, side load) raises mechanical questions. Offensively, he excels in transition (1.4 PPP) and cutting (1.3 PPP), but post-ups (0.9 PPP) and paint floaters (46.7%) may struggle against pro length.

Defensively, he’s elite. His 2.1 steals and 1.6 blocks per 40 minutes, paired with a 7’1” wingspan, let him switch 1-4 and disrupt passing lanes (1.9 deflections per game). He’s not a rim protector—1.3 blocks won’t deter NBA drivers—but his 91.2 defensive rating and ability to navigate screens fit modern schemes. Duke’s third-ranked defense (KenPom) leans on his activity.

Player Comparison

Flagg’s profile evokes one name: Jayson Tatum (Duke, 2016-17). Tatum, at a similar 6’8” frame, thrived as a polished isolation scorer, leaning heavily on midrange pull-ups and a refined face-up game. Flagg, by contrast, operates more dynamically—cutting hard, crashing boards, and igniting transition with his athleticism and hustle. Tatum’s offense flowed through deliberate creation; Flagg’s thrives on instinct and versatility, spreading his shots across the floor with less midrange reliance. Defensively, Flagg’s edge shines brighter—his switchability, deflections, and two-way motor outpace Tatum’s solid but less disruptive freshman year. Both flash star-level scoring wings, but Flagg’s efficiency, playmaking spark, and defensive tenacity tilt the scales, even if Tatum’s midrange craft gave him a smoother offensive foundation.

Cooper guarding LeBron at 17 years old.

Projection

Flagg’s the consensus No. 1 pick for 2025 mocks, with a “stranglehold” per ESPN’s Givony. Wooden Award odds (-300) lead Johni Broome (+200); his five-category dominance could clinch it with a March run. NBA rookie stat line: 18-20 PPG, 8 RPG, 3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1 BPG, 44% FG, 36% 3PT, assuming 4-5 three-point attempts. All-Defensive upside hinges on added bulk. Floor: 15 PPG role player if shooting stalls. Duke’s title odds rest on him—a Final Four miss could underwhelm expectations.

Final Take

Flagg’s not perfect, but his stats—19.8 PPG, 1.15 PPP, 3.0 stocks—back the hype. He’s a freshman fueling a top team across the board, with numbers screaming pro readiness. The NBA awaits, and I’m watching—March Madness could cement what the data already suggests: a cornerstone in waiting.